How much of success is luck vs skill?

Every player starts with 100 and faces identical odds. Press play and watch how repetition, small edges, and randomness create wildly different outcomes.

Each colored line = one player's bankroll over time. Dashed line = starting point (100).

What you're seeing

Multiple players all starting with the same bankroll (100) and facing identical odds. Each round, they bet a fraction and either win or lose. Watch the paths fan apart despite everyone playing the same game.

How to read the graph

Each colored line is one player's wealth over time. The dashed line at 100 marks where everyone started. Lines that hit zero mean that player went bust. The top label shows the best and worst performers and the spread between them.

The key lesson

With identical odds, some players end up 100x richer while others go bust — purely from randomness. In small samples, luck looks exactly like skill. This is why we over-attribute success to talent, and why bet sizing (risk management) matters more than being right.

Round0

Best Player100

Worst Player100

Spread (Best/Worst)1x

Above Start0/10

Still Alive10/10

Press play. Every player starts with 100 and faces the same odds. Watch how luck and tiny edges create wildly different outcomes through repetition.